Σικάγο, Οκτ. 16 – Η τιμή του σιταριού των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών «έπεσε» στο χαμηλότερο επίπεδο των τελευταίων έξι εβδομάδων την περασμένη Τρίτη λόγω συνεχόμενων ρευστοποιήσεων, ή αγορών, και καταστάσεων εξαιτίας της αυξανόμενης καλλιέργειας ως επακόλουθο των υψηλών τιμών ρεκορ και μιας πιθανής μείωσης στις εξαγωγές.
Οι Ευρωπαϊκές τιμές σίτου, οι οποίες τον τελευταίο μήνα έφτασαν στα υψηλότερα σημεία όλων των εποχών λόγω των μειωμένων παραγωγών του Καναδά, της Ευρώπης και της Αυστραλίας που είναι ο κύριος εξαγωγέας, ήταν χαμηλότερες σε σχέση με τις τιμές Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών.
Οι τιμές στις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες έχουν μειωθεί περίπου 15% από την ιστορικά υψηλή τιμή των $9.66-1/2 ανά bushel στις 28 του Σεπτέμβρη, με ορισμένους εμπόρους να περιμένουν περαιτέρω πτώση των τιμών.
Οι μειώσεις θα απαλύνουν την πίεση στις εταιρειες τροφίμων και ιδιαίτερα στους φούρνους, που ήδη δέχονταν έντονη πίεση από την αύξηση του ενεργειακού κόστους, των μεταφορικών, της συσκευασίας και των εργατικών να αυξήσουν τις τιμές.
«Παραμένει μεγάλο ερώτημα το πόσο μακρυά και χαμηλότερα μπορεί να παέι αυτή η μεγάλη εκκαθάριση» αναφέρει ο αναλυτής Terry Reilly της Citigroup. «Προβλέπω μείωση του κινδύνου γύρω στα $8. Αλλά δεν υπάρχει κάποιο στοιχείο που βασικά να προσφέρει αισιοδοξία για μία έστω μικρή περαιτέρω πτώση των τιμών.» προσθέτει ο Reilly
Το CBOT Δεκεμβρίου για το σιτάρι έκλεισε 5 cents χαμηλότερα στα $8,28-1/2 ανά bushel μετά την πτώση για μια μικρή περίοδο στα $8,10. Το CBOT του Δεκεμβρίου για το σιτάρι προβλέπει μειωμένες κατά 30 cents τις ημερήσιες εμπορικές τιμές κατά τη διάρκεια των δύο συνεδριάσεων.
Σύμφωνα με το Kansas City Board του μηνός Δεκεμβρίου το σιτάρι «έπεσε» κατά 5 cents και έφτασε στα $8,38 την προηγούμενη Τρίτη ενώ σύμφωνα με το Minneapolis Grain Exchange Δεκεμβρίου το σιτάρι «έπεσε» κατά 13 cents στα $8,37.
Η εκτίναξη των τιμών αυτό το χρόνο έχει επιφέρει αύξηση της καλλιέργειας σιταριού παγκοσμίως, ξεκινώντας από τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, το κράτος που είναι πρώτο στις εξαγωγές στον κόσμο. Ορισμένοι έμποροι περιμένουν μια αύξηση περίπου 1,2 εκατομυρίων εκταρίων στις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες.
Η σοδεία στην Αργεντινή, η οποία περιλαμβάνεται μεταξύ των πέντε πρώτων εξαγωγέων σιταριού στον κόσμο, αναπτύσσεται καλά μετά τις ωφέλιμες βροχοπτώσεις των προηγούμενων εβδομάδων και αναμένεται αρκετά αποδοτική.
Έμποροι αναφέρουν μεγάλη εξάπλωση στο CBOT του σιταριού, που περιλαμβάνει την πώληση των παλαιών σοδειών με συμβόλαια πωλήσεων από την αγορά σίτου της νέας εσοδείας. Η σεζόν του σίτου το 2007 ξεκίνησε την 1η Ιουνίου.
Η μέιωση στις τιμές στο CBOT του σίτου είναι βαρύνουσας σημασίας στις Ευρωπαϊκές αγορές. Στο Παρίσι, οι πωλήσεις του Ιανουαρίου «έπεσαν» κατά 8 ευρώ, ή 3%, στα 237 ευρώ ανά τόννο.
Οι τιμές σίτου των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών υπέστησαν πιέσεις λόγω υποθέσεων όπως ότι οι υφιστάμενες υψηλές τιμές είχαν μετριάσει το ενδιαφέρον για εξαγωγές και ότι τα αποθέματα από την Ρωσία ήταν περισσότερο ανταγωνιστικά στη παγκόσμια αγορά.
Οι πωλήσεις του CBOT για τον αραβόσιτο έκλεισαν χαμηλότερα την περασμένη Δευτέρα σε μια τεχνική πτώση μετά από τις δύο εβδομάδες υψηλών τιμών.
Η πλεονασματική σοδειά αραβοσίτου των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών συνέχισε να απειλεί την αγορά, με τους παραγωγούς να περιμένουν να παράγουν αυτό το χρόνο μια από τις μεγαλύτερες παραγωγές. Η USDA έχει προβλέψει πως η φετινή παραγωγή αραβοσιτου θα φτάσει στα 13.318 δισεκ. bushels, μεγαλύτερη από του προηγούμενου χρόνου που ήταν 10.535.
Η σόγια ακολούθησε τεχνική πώλήση, και πίεση από την αυξημένη σοδειά στην περιοχή της Βραζιλίας με τη μεγαλύτερη παραγωγή σόγιας το Mato Grosso καθώς οι βροχοπτώσεις βελτίωσαν την εδαφική υγρασία πριν την περίοδο του φυτέματος.
Το CBOT του Δεκεμβρίου για τον αραβόσιτο έκλεισε χαμηλότερα κατά 1-1/2 cents στα $3,60-1/2 το bushel. H σόγια Νοεμβρίου «έπεσε» 9-1/2 cents στα $9,77-1/2.
SOYBEAN REPORT
Soybean Prices
US - Pricing and storage decisions for the 2007 soybean crop are being influenced by the current high price, the weak basis, and the availability of storage, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"The weak basis in many areas suggests storing the crop to capture a post-harvest strengthening of the basis," said Darrel Good. "Hedging the stored crop would allow the producer to benefit from any such improvement and to capture the current high prices. Storing the crop unpriced would also allow the producer to capture an improving basis, but at the risk of lower prices and the potential for higher prices.
"The weak basis and large carry in the corn market also make the storage of that crop attractive. In cases of limited storage capacity, producers may need to examine the relative returns to storing soybeans and corn. In central Illinois, the net return to corn storage, as measured by potential basis improvement, exceeds that of soybeans due to the high interest opportunity cost of holding soybeans."
Good's comments came as he reviewed soybean prices which have moved sharply higher since mid-August. November 2007 soybean futures traded to about $8 in mid-August, established a contract high of $9.965 on Sept. 19, and closed at $9.79 on Sept. 21. The average spot cash price of soybeans in central Illinois was near $7.50 in mid-August and at $9.165 on Sept. 21.
"Soybean prices have been supported by the smaller U.S. supply of soybeans forecast by the USDA on Sept. 12, the need to motivate an increase in soybean acreage in South America, and prospects of continued strong Chinese demand for soybeans," he noted.
"These three factors--the size of the U.S. crop, South American acreage, and Chinese demand--will continue to direct prices. In addition, prospects for U.S. soybean acreage in 2008 will have significance for price direction."
Consumption less
The USDA projects that the 2007-08 marketing year ending stocks of U.S. soybeans will total 215 million bushels, or 7.3 percent of projected use. Consumption is forecast at 2.964 billion bushels, 127 million less than the record use during the 2006-07 marketing year.
The expected decline is for exports, as the South American share of the world soybean market is projected to grow from 52 percent in 2006-07 to 61 percent his year.
Good said that the projected U.S. crop of 2.619 billion bushels reflects a national average yield of 41.4 bushels per acre, the lowest in four years and 1.6 bushels below the record yield of 2005.
"Like corn yields, reports of actual soybean yields have been relatively high, suggesting that the average may be higher than currently forecast," he noted. "The early yield forecasts--August and September--are based partly on a survey of producer expectations of yields. Reported expectations may have been below the actual yields being experienced. Soybeans will remain in tight supply, but perhaps not as tight as currently forecast."
In its report of Sept. 12, the USDA projected a 6 percent increase in soybean acreage in Argentina, a 4 percent increase in Brazil, and a 4.5 percent increase in all of South America.
"On the surface, projected acreage and average yields in South America in 2008 would appear to fall short of offsetting the 18 percent decline in U.S. production," said Good. "However, current stocks of soybeans in South America are quite large. Stocks at the end of the 2006-07 marketing year are estimated at 1.545 billion bushels, or 61 percent of projected use.
"The stocks-to-use ratio is large since the USDA adjusts the South American marketing year to an October through September year, about the middle of the actual marketing year. There may be room to reduce stocks even further during the 2008-09 marketing year so that increased consumption doesn't have to be met entirely with increased production. The recent strength in soybean prices may motivate a few more acres to be planted to soybeans as well."
Chinese dependent
U.S. soybean exports will depend heavily on Chinese demand. As of Sept. 13, the USDA reported that export commitments for delivery to China in the 2007-08 marketing year totaled 174 million bushels, compared to 125 million bushels that had been committed a year earlier.
"Last week, China announced at least a temporary reduction in the import tax on soybeans, from 3 percent to 1 percent," said Good. "The reduction is aimed at increasing imports to augment the small harvest and to help curb the inflation in food prices.
"For now, Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans will likely remain strong, encouraged to some extent by the low value of the U.S. dollar."
U.S. producers may need to increase soybean acreage in 2008, depending on the outcome of the South American crop and prospects for world stocks. Some early surveys suggest that U.S. producers have already planned a significant increase in acreage, motivated by opportunities to sell the 2008 crop above $9."
"However, 2008 corn prices near $4 makes corn a potentially more profitable crop than soybeans in many areas, even with escalating production costs," said Good. "The market's job of directing planting decisions in the United States in 2008 is far from done."
US - Pricing and storage decisions for the 2007 soybean crop are being influenced by the current high price, the weak basis, and the availability of storage, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"The weak basis in many areas suggests storing the crop to capture a post-harvest strengthening of the basis," said Darrel Good. "Hedging the stored crop would allow the producer to benefit from any such improvement and to capture the current high prices. Storing the crop unpriced would also allow the producer to capture an improving basis, but at the risk of lower prices and the potential for higher prices.
"The weak basis and large carry in the corn market also make the storage of that crop attractive. In cases of limited storage capacity, producers may need to examine the relative returns to storing soybeans and corn. In central Illinois, the net return to corn storage, as measured by potential basis improvement, exceeds that of soybeans due to the high interest opportunity cost of holding soybeans."
Good's comments came as he reviewed soybean prices which have moved sharply higher since mid-August. November 2007 soybean futures traded to about $8 in mid-August, established a contract high of $9.965 on Sept. 19, and closed at $9.79 on Sept. 21. The average spot cash price of soybeans in central Illinois was near $7.50 in mid-August and at $9.165 on Sept. 21.
"Soybean prices have been supported by the smaller U.S. supply of soybeans forecast by the USDA on Sept. 12, the need to motivate an increase in soybean acreage in South America, and prospects of continued strong Chinese demand for soybeans," he noted.
"These three factors--the size of the U.S. crop, South American acreage, and Chinese demand--will continue to direct prices. In addition, prospects for U.S. soybean acreage in 2008 will have significance for price direction."
Consumption less
The USDA projects that the 2007-08 marketing year ending stocks of U.S. soybeans will total 215 million bushels, or 7.3 percent of projected use. Consumption is forecast at 2.964 billion bushels, 127 million less than the record use during the 2006-07 marketing year.
The expected decline is for exports, as the South American share of the world soybean market is projected to grow from 52 percent in 2006-07 to 61 percent his year.
Good said that the projected U.S. crop of 2.619 billion bushels reflects a national average yield of 41.4 bushels per acre, the lowest in four years and 1.6 bushels below the record yield of 2005.
"Like corn yields, reports of actual soybean yields have been relatively high, suggesting that the average may be higher than currently forecast," he noted. "The early yield forecasts--August and September--are based partly on a survey of producer expectations of yields. Reported expectations may have been below the actual yields being experienced. Soybeans will remain in tight supply, but perhaps not as tight as currently forecast."
In its report of Sept. 12, the USDA projected a 6 percent increase in soybean acreage in Argentina, a 4 percent increase in Brazil, and a 4.5 percent increase in all of South America.
"On the surface, projected acreage and average yields in South America in 2008 would appear to fall short of offsetting the 18 percent decline in U.S. production," said Good. "However, current stocks of soybeans in South America are quite large. Stocks at the end of the 2006-07 marketing year are estimated at 1.545 billion bushels, or 61 percent of projected use.
"The stocks-to-use ratio is large since the USDA adjusts the South American marketing year to an October through September year, about the middle of the actual marketing year. There may be room to reduce stocks even further during the 2008-09 marketing year so that increased consumption doesn't have to be met entirely with increased production. The recent strength in soybean prices may motivate a few more acres to be planted to soybeans as well."
Chinese dependent
U.S. soybean exports will depend heavily on Chinese demand. As of Sept. 13, the USDA reported that export commitments for delivery to China in the 2007-08 marketing year totaled 174 million bushels, compared to 125 million bushels that had been committed a year earlier.
"Last week, China announced at least a temporary reduction in the import tax on soybeans, from 3 percent to 1 percent," said Good. "The reduction is aimed at increasing imports to augment the small harvest and to help curb the inflation in food prices.
"For now, Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans will likely remain strong, encouraged to some extent by the low value of the U.S. dollar."
U.S. producers may need to increase soybean acreage in 2008, depending on the outcome of the South American crop and prospects for world stocks. Some early surveys suggest that U.S. producers have already planned a significant increase in acreage, motivated by opportunities to sell the 2008 crop above $9."
"However, 2008 corn prices near $4 makes corn a potentially more profitable crop than soybeans in many areas, even with escalating production costs," said Good. "The market's job of directing planting decisions in the United States in 2008 is far from done."
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